Question

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction0.943 (0.597 - 1.55)

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CDF

weight:

	<0.1	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15
community	2.5%	0.5969	0.9434	1.555	2.6%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.1	2.5%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	0.5969	—
median	0.9434	—
upper 75%	1.555	—
Upper bound
>15	2.6%	—

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 22, 2025

Closes:

Mar 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 2, 2026

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Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026? → If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

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Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

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