If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

conditional

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

13 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.793

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.686

5 comments5

Make a Prediction

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?	If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
if yes	My Prediction: -
if no	My Prediction: -

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CDF

weight:

	<0.1	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15
community	0.7%	0.4339	0.793	2.323	10.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.1	0.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	0.4339	—
median	0.793	—
upper 75%	2.323	—
Upper bound
>15	10.2%	—

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 24, 2025

Closes:

Mar 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 2, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.943

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

247

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 24, 2025

Closes:

Mar 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 2, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

2025 Leaderboard

Biden administration has no current plans to authorize a bird flu vaccine for humans

NBC•Feb 18, 2025

Bird flu: The wind may be partly to blame for spread between farms, a new study suggests

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

As bird flu continues to spread, is there a vaccine for humans?

USA Today•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.943

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

247