📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?

5
5
Total Forecasters24
Community Prediction2031-04-02 (2029-02-13 - 2032-10-05)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2032-10-05
...
...
...
...
2029-02-13 21:01
2031-04-02 20:26
>2032-10-05 00:00
33.8%
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Animal Welfare Series
Technology
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Agriculture
Biotechnology
Cell biology
Reproductive medicine
Alison Van Eenennaam
University of California, Davis
Food and Drug Administration
Biology
Genetics

Comments

? comments