Question

Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion?

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44 comments44

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction54%

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50%

community: 54%

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median 54.0%mean 57.1%

Authors:

jabowery

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Politics

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Algorithmic probability

Nature Machine Intelligence

Philosophy

Hutter Prize

Social Sciences Citation Index

World Science Festival

Artificial general intelligence

Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize?

Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

20%

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

65%

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