Question

Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 12.8%

Authors:

periastron

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

IAU definition of planet

International Astronomical Union

Pluto

50000 Quaoar

Literature

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

20%

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?

7.4%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

periastron

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

IAU definition of planet

International Astronomical Union

Pluto

50000 Quaoar

Literature

Scientists might finally have worked out the big mystery of Uranus – and space weather might be to blame

Independent•Nov 12, 2024

Almost Everything We Know About Planet Uranus May Be Wrong

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Uranus mystery is SOLVED after 38 years - and it suggests the planet isn't as weird as we thought

Daily Mail•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?

20%

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?

7.4%