Question

How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?

Resolved :365

19 comments19

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction349

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

317.2

349.5

381.3

What was the final result?365

Community Baseline Score

69.5

Community Peer Score

16.0

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

House of Commons of the UK

UK general election

Conservative Party (UK)

United Kingdom

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Labour Majority After Next UK Election? → More than 200k UK houses built?

When the Coalition next governs Australia, will it be in majority?

69%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

House of Commons of the UK

UK general election

Conservative Party (UK)

United Kingdom

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UK Conservatives narrow their leadership race to 3 as a new front-runner surges

Associated Press•Oct 8, 2024

James Cleverly emerges as frontrunner in UK Conservatives leadership race

Al Jazeera•Oct 9, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Labour Majority After Next UK Election? → More than 200k UK houses built?

When the Coalition next governs Australia, will it be in majority?

69%