Question

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters117

Community Prediction54.9

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1M

...

5.446

54.92

1.503k

4.0%

Authors:

Pablo

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?

7.58

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

Comments

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Authors:

Pablo

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Woman Falls Pregnant With 'Spontaneous' Quadruplets–But There's a Surprise

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Women switched at birth in 1965 claim error was covered up for decades: "They kept it secret"

CBS•Nov 13, 2024

Scientists could engineer tomatoes to be sweeter without sacrificing size

Independent•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?

7.58

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%