Question
When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?
Total Forecasters52
Community Prediction
Mar 2032
(21 Jun 2029 - Mar 2037)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 21 Jun 2029 | — |
| median | Mar 2032 | — |
| upper 75% | Mar 2037 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2039 | 16.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 22, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 24, 2019
When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?
Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
30.1%
How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?
>30
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 22, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 24, 2019
When will the World Health Organization report no detected polio cases (wild poliovirus) for an entire calendar year, for the first time?
Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
30.1%
How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years?
>30