Question

World population forecast to peak before 2100?

Resolved :No

6 comments6

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction52%

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community: 52%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-7.9

Community Peer Score

40.4

median 52.0%mean 52.0%

Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Social Sciences

United Nations

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Projections of population growth

What will be the peak human population before 2100?

9.98B

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

66%

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.18B

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Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Social Sciences

United Nations

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Projections of population growth

Don’t expect human life expectancy to grow much more, researcher says

Associated Press•Oct 8, 2024

Human life expectancy pushed to maximum limit, gains slowing down, study finds

Independent•Oct 8, 2024

Earth’s ‘vital signs’ show humanity’s future in balance, say climate experts

Guardian•Oct 8, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the peak human population before 2100?

9.98B

Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?

66%

What will be the world population in the following years?

8.18B