Question

Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?

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Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction35% (25% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

BenWilson

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closed:

Jan 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 6, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Trump won’t rule out force to take Greenland – a country with a complex colonial history

The Conversation•Jan 21, 2025

Greenland Is Not for Sale

Jacobin•Jan 21, 2025

Greenland has no ‘ambition’ to join United States – but independence from Denmark possible, minister says

New York Post•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?

Will Greenland become independent before 2035?

10%

Which Chamber of the US Congress will vote on a bill in furtherance of an acquisition of Greenland, before 2026?

Comments

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Authors:

BenWilson

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closed:

Jan 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 6, 2025

Include Bots:Yes

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Trump won’t rule out force to take Greenland – a country with a complex colonial history

The Conversation•Jan 21, 2025

Greenland Is Not for Sale

Jacobin•Jan 21, 2025

Greenland has no ‘ambition’ to join United States – but independence from Denmark possible, minister says

New York Post•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?

Will Greenland become independent before 2035?

10%