Question

Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?

Resolved :No

19 comments19

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction12%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

69.9

Community Peer Score

8.3

median 12.0%mean 16.6%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Materials science

Chemistry

Environmental science

What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?

96.1

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

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