Question

How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for February 2025?

Total Forecasters715

Community Prediction50k (50k - 57.6k)

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	<50k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>150k
community	55.0%	<50k	<50k	57.63k	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<50k	55.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	<50k	—
median	<50k	—
upper 75%	57.63k	—
Upper bound
>150k	0.4%	—

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jan 30, 2025

Closed:

Feb 28, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 15, 2025

Bridgewater Forecasting Contest

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Trump reports illegal immigrant encounters at historic lows during first full month in office

FOX News•Mar 2, 2025

TRUMP EFFECT: Migrant Encounters at Southern Border Hit Lowest-Ever Mark, Down 94 Percent from Last February

Breitbart•Mar 3, 2025

How February's Southwest Illegal Border Crossings Compare to Past Years

Newsweek•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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