MetaculusM

Question

What will be the total number of aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) between February 15 and March 15, 2025?

5

Total Forecasters321

Community PredictionRevealed

in 2 weeks

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

My Prediction

<150

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>350

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Authors:

Opened:

Jan 30, 2025

Closes:

Mar 5, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 17, 2025

Bridgewater Forecasting Contest

Would This Keep the Chinese Out of Taiwan?

Red State•Jan 26, 2025

Provocation? Chinese Planes, Ships Carry Out 'Combat Readiness Patrols' Near Philippine-Claimed Territory

Red State•Jan 27, 2025

Japan Scrambled Jets Hundreds of Times Against Chinese Threats Last Year

Newsweek•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Jan 30, 2025

Closes:

Mar 5, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 17, 2025

Bridgewater Forecasting Contest

Would This Keep the Chinese Out of Taiwan?

Red State•Jan 26, 2025

Provocation? Chinese Planes, Ships Carry Out 'Combat Readiness Patrols' Near Philippine-Claimed Territory

Red State•Jan 27, 2025

Japan Scrambled Jets Hundreds of Times Against Chinese Threats Last Year

Newsweek•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch