Question
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction3.1×10²⁵ (8.2×10²⁴ - 1.1×10²⁶)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1×10²⁴ | 12.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 8.2×10²⁴ | — |
| median | 3.1×10²⁵ | — |
| upper 75% | 1.1×10²⁶ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >5×10²⁶ | 6.8% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030