Question
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
Total Forecasters7
Community Prediction4.3×10²⁵ (2×10²⁵ - 9.8×10²⁵)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
My Prediction
community<1×10²⁴
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>5×10²⁶
...
...
...
...
...
6.8%
2×10²⁵
4.3×10²⁵
9.8×10²⁵
1.6%
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030