Question

What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction96.1 (21.7 - 245)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>500

...

21.71

96.14

245.3

5.1%

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Engineering

Chemistry

Environmental science

The most encouraging climate solutions and green technologies of 2024

New Scientist•Dec 17, 2024

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Forbes•Dec 21, 2024

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Business Insider•Dec 20, 2024

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Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

4.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Engineering

Chemistry

Environmental science

The most encouraging climate solutions and green technologies of 2024

New Scientist•Dec 17, 2024

‘Marine Snow’ Could Help Drown Our Carbon Crisis—A Biologist Explains

Forbes•Dec 21, 2024

Carbon-removal tech startups like Equatic and Climeworks look to the future of sustainability

Business Insider•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

4.7%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

Comments

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?