Question

What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction96.1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>500

...

21.71

96.14

245.3

5.1%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Engineering

Chemistry

Environmental science

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

4.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Engineering

Chemistry

Environmental science

Iron Ore Drops Back to $100 as China’s Latest Fix Disappoints

Bloomberg•Nov 11, 2024

Carbon removal hype is becoming a dangerous distraction

•Nov 12, 2024

Ryan Gilliam: TIME100 Climate 2024

Time•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?

22%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

4.7%