Question

Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?

Resolved :No

67 comments67

Total Forecasters265

Community Prediction1%

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community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.6

Community Peer Score

11.2

median 1.0%mean 3.5%

Authors:

CredibleHulk

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Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

20%

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024? → US Iran War Before 2025?

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Authors:

CredibleHulk

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will Netanyahu Incite a War with Iran? Leaked U.S. Docs Detail Israel’s Attack Plans

Democracy Now•Oct 21, 2024

Will Iran Go to War With Israel? What We Know

Newsweek•Oct 25, 2024

The US wants this to be ‘the end’ of direct Israel-Iran fire. It may be too soon to tell

CNN•Oct 26, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

20%