Question

Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?

Resolved :No

67 comments67

Total Forecasters265

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.6

Community Peer Score

11.2

median 1.0%mean 3.5%

Authors:

CredibleHulk

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

15%

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024? → US Iran War Before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

CredibleHulk

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

There are no “Easy Wars” left to fight, but do not mistake the longing for one

Strategic Culture•Nov 15, 2024

Iran Reportedly Told US It Wouldn’t Seek To Kill Trump

Daily Caller•Nov 16, 2024

Iran informed Biden administration that it wouldn’t try to assassinate Trump after US warning: report

New York Post•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

15%