Question

Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?

Resolved :No1%

67 comments67

Total Forecasters265

Community Prediction1% (1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

94.6

Community Peer Score

11.2

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Authors:

CredibleHulk

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Trump declines to comment on preemptive strikes against Iran nuclear facilities: ‘How could I tell you a thing like that now?’

New York Post•Dec 17, 2024

Iran: America’s Next War Of Choice

American Conservative•Dec 17, 2024

Iran: America’s next war of choice

Strategic Culture•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?

0.9%

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

15%

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024? → US Iran War Before 2025?

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