Question

If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?

38 comments38

Total Forecasters166

Community Prediction57% (25% - 75%)

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50%

community: 57%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

34.4%

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

2048-11-25

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

34.4%

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

2048-11-25

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If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?

Make a Prediction

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Comments

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?