Question

If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?

38 comments38

Total Forecasters166

Community Prediction59% (25% - 75%)

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50%

community: 59%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

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AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

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Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

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How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.96

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

34.4%

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

2048-11-25

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

How Human Hubris Beats Artificial Intelligence

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.96

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

34.4%

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

2048-11-25

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?

Make a Prediction

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Comments

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?