Question
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1581
Community Prediction2026-10-07 (2025-09-06 - 2029-04-15)
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CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <2020-03-27 | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 2025 | — |
| median | 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2200-01-04 | 1.9% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch