Question
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1590
Community Prediction
2026
(2025 - 2029)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <158526720000% | 0.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 2025 | — |
| median | 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >725837760000% | 1.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch