Question

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

201

476 comments476

Total Forecasters1516

Community Prediction2027-11-12

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<2020-03-27

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2200-01-04

...

0.2%

2025-12-12 19:38

2027-11-12 06:34

2032-06-22 00:45

1.8%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2032-06-11

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

44.3

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7

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