Question
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1675
Community Prediction
16 Apr 2027
(10 Jan 2026 - 19 May 2030)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <Mar 2020 | 0.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 10 Jan 2026 | — |
| median | 16 Apr 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | 19 May 2030 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2200 | 2.2% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch