Question

Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?

Resolved :Yes89%

14 comments14

Total Forecasters161

Community Prediction89% (85% - 93%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 89%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

59.7

Community Peer Score

11.4

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jan 14, 2020

Closes:

Mar 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 2, 2022

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Natural Sciences

2020-2021 Leaderboard

What Is Gen Beta? How Babies Born From 2025 Will Change the World

Newsweek•Jan 27, 2025

‘They don’t want me to rise again’: China’s gene-editing scientist on why he’s back in the lab

Spectator (UK)•Jan 27, 2025

Technology for lab-grown eggs or sperm on brink of viability, UK fertility watchdog finds

Guardian•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

40.6

When will the first cloned human be born?

2040-08-28

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Comments

? comments