Question

Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?

Resolved :Yes99%

17 comments17

Total Forecasters172

Community Prediction99% (95% - 99%)

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50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

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47.3

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15.5

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Environmental science

Instrumental temperature record

Climate change denial

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Coal use hitting all-time high in 2024, which is on track to be hottest year ever, report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Wild temperature swings are coming the rest of the year. Here’s what to expect

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Environmental science

Instrumental temperature record

Climate change denial

El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Coal use hitting all-time high in 2024, which is on track to be hottest year ever, report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Wild temperature swings are coming the rest of the year. Here’s what to expect

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?

Make a Prediction

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Comments

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?