Question

Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?

Resolved :No

70 comments70

Total Forecasters214

Community Prediction3%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

89.4

Community Peer Score

7.9

median 3.0%mean 5.1%

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Democratic Party (US)

Jill Stein

2020 US presidential election

Republican Party (US)

John B. Anderson

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2056-10-10

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2087-11-24

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