Question

Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters124

Community Prediction38% (25% - 64%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Lethal autonomous weapon

Military science

Robotics

Machine learning

Future of Life Institute

Facial recognition system

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

A Russian missile and drone developer was assassinated in a Ukrainian hit: reports

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Conflicts of Interest: Israel Will Deploy Autonomous Weapons to the West Bank

AntiWar•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Lethal autonomous weapon

Military science

Robotics

Machine learning

Future of Life Institute

Facial recognition system

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

A Russian missile and drone developer was assassinated in a Ukrainian hit: reports

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Conflicts of Interest: Israel Will Deploy Autonomous Weapons to the West Bank

AntiWar•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

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Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Comments

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?