Question

Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?

Resolved :No38%

18 comments18

Total Forecasters124

Community Prediction38% (25% - 64%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-2.2

Community Peer Score

26.5

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Oct 15, 2016

Closes:

Jan 1, 2018

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Lethal autonomous weapon

Military science

Robotics

Machine learning

Future of Life Institute

Facial recognition system

OpenAI’s Sam Altman: ‘We Know How To Build AGI’, Will Hit Workforce In 2025

Daily Wire•Jan 26, 2025

What Is the Biggest Threat to the World in 2025?

Newsweek•Jan 27, 2025

Opinion | Our Military Is Adopting A.I. Way Too Fast

New York Times•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

75%

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

11%

Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

20%

Comments

? comments