Question

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

35 comments35

Total Forecasters223

Community Prediction11%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 11%

median 11.0%mean 17.7%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

27%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Trumpian Isolationism in the Nuclear Age

OpEdNews•Nov 19, 2024

BOOM: Russia Updates Its Nuclear Doctrine, Pushing the World Closer to Armageddon

PJ Media•Nov 19, 2024

The Kremlin has revised its nuclear policy. Does that make the use of atomic weapons more likely?

Associated Press•Nov 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

27%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%