Question

Will the US election be decided by Nov. 11?

Resolved :Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction75%

Make a Prediction

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

78.9

Community Peer Score

25.8

median 75.0%mean 74.1%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2016 US presidential election

Supreme Court of the US

Hillary Clinton

United States

2016 Democratic National Committee email leak

Donald Trump

Bush v. Gore

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?

13%

In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2016 US presidential election

Supreme Court of the US

Hillary Clinton

United States

2016 Democratic National Committee email leak

Donald Trump

Bush v. Gore

Could an “October surprise” upset America’s election?

Economist•Oct 9, 2024

Why the Supreme Court May Not Decide the 2024 Election After All

Slate•Oct 10, 2024

How long will it take to know who won the 2024 election? What to know about results

USA Today•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?

13%

In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?