Question

Will the US election be decided by Nov. 11?

Resolved :Yes75%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction75% (66% - 96%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

78.9

Community Peer Score

25.8

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

2016 Leaderboard

2016 US presidential election

Supreme Court of the US

Hillary Clinton

United States

2016 Democratic National Committee email leak

Donald Trump

Bush v. Gore

US electors to certify Trump’s win in process targeted by fake electors in 2020

Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

The most - and least - surprising votes from a historic year of elections

CNN•Dec 24, 2024

Economy, Sexism and Conspiracies Fueled Trump’s Reelection

•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In 2024 or 2025, will a dispute which determines the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided by the US Supreme Court?

0.5%

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?

0.1%

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