Question

How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?

Resolved :4.47k

16 comments16

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction4.72k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<500

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>15k

...

1.0%

3.996k

4.723k

5.548k

0.5%

What was the final result?4.47k

Community Baseline Score

70.9

Community Peer Score

9.8

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Environmental science

Solar physics

Stratospheric aerosol injection

Google Scholar

Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering

Royal Society

Will more than 34 countries have committed to a stringent anti-solar-geoengineering pact before 2026?

4.7%

How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?

6.97k

Will at least ten countries have committed to any diplomatic agreement restricting solar geoengineering, before 2026?

8.9%

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