Question

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?

Resolved :No

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Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction55%

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community: 55%

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Community Baseline Score

-28.7

Community Peer Score

15.7

median 55.0%mean 54.2%

Authors:

Anthony

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AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Chemistry

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

95%

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

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