Question

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?

Resolved :No55%

15 comments15

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction55% (50% - 61%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-28.7

Community Peer Score

15.7

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Feb 3, 2020

Closes:

May 15, 2020

Resolves:

Feb 15, 2022

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020-2021 Leaderboard

How DeepSeek’s efficient AI could stall the nuclear renaissance

TechCrunch•Jan 28, 2025

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Jan 29, 2025

Why building big AIs costs billions – and how Chinese startup DeepSeek dramatically changed the calculus

The Conversation•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

87.1%

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

Comments

? comments