Question

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?

Resolved :No

15 comments15

Total Forecasters82

Community Prediction55%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-28.7

Community Peer Score

15.7

median 55.0%mean 54.2%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

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