Question

Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?

Resolved :Yes

29 comments29

Total Forecasters147

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

24.2

Community Peer Score

36.9

median 99.0%mean 97.6%

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AABoyles

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

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Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%