Question

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

40 comments40

Total Forecasters256

Community Prediction4% (2% - 9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Taiwan

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military activity near Taiwan intensifies, 24 PLA aircraft detected

•Dec 13, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Taiwan

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

Chinese military activity near Taiwan intensifies, 24 PLA aircraft detected

•Dec 13, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

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Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

Comments

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?