Question

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

40 comments40

Total Forecasters257

Community Prediction4% (2% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 14, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

People's Liberation Army

China

Change to State Department website sparks fiery rebuke from Beijing over Taiwanese independence

CNN•Feb 18, 2025

China accuses U.S. of 'serious regression' in its Taiwan position after change to State Dept. website

NBC•Feb 17, 2025

China says Trump admin's change to U.S. fact sheet on Taiwan "further damaging" regional peace

CBS•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

41%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

55%

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