Question

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

40 comments40

Total Forecasters256

Community Prediction4% (2% - 9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Taiwan

Red panda diplomacy offers glimmer of hope even as China-Taiwan tensions soar

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

US President Biden authorises US$571 million in military aid to Taiwan

•Dec 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan–US relations

Taiwan

Red panda diplomacy offers glimmer of hope even as China-Taiwan tensions soar

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

US President Biden authorises US$571 million in military aid to Taiwan

•Dec 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

33.5%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%