Question

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters96

Community Prediction50% (38% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 14, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Elections

United States

James L. Buckley

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

US Senate

'Can’t take anything for granted': GOP senator predicts Dems will 'reunify' ahead of midterms

AlterNet•Jan 26, 2025

Strategist Makes Prediction About Possible Kamala Harris 2028 Campaign

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

Michigan Democratic senator will not seek re-election in key swing state

Guardian•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 14, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Elections

United States

James L. Buckley

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

US Senate

'Can’t take anything for granted': GOP senator predicts Dems will 'reunify' ahead of midterms

AlterNet•Jan 26, 2025

Strategist Makes Prediction About Possible Kamala Harris 2028 Campaign

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

Michigan Democratic senator will not seek re-election in key swing state

Guardian•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a member of the Forward Party hold any seat in the US congress or the presidency by February 1st 2029?

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%