Question

Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction2.5% (1% - 6%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 12, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Technology

Eric Schmidt

Long Now Foundation

Flying is the safest way to travel. Here's how it got the distinction. | Cruising Altitude

USA Today•Jan 30, 2025

Tesla will launch unsupervised driving in June, Musk says

Verge•Jan 30, 2025

Reagan Airport Plane Crash: Experts Warn 'We're Ignoring the Real Threat'

Newsweek•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

56%

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 12, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Technology

Eric Schmidt

Long Now Foundation

Flying is the safest way to travel. Here's how it got the distinction. | Cruising Altitude

USA Today•Jan 30, 2025

Tesla will launch unsupervised driving in June, Musk says

Verge•Jan 30, 2025

Reagan Airport Plane Crash: Experts Warn 'We're Ignoring the Real Threat'

Newsweek•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

56%

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

80%

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

92%