Question
Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?
Total Forecasters87
Community Prediction2.5% (1% - 6%)
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 12, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
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Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?
60%
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
80%
Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?
92%
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 12, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?
60%
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
80%
Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?
92%