Question

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

109 comments109

Total Forecasters512

Community Prediction80% (67.5% - 90%)

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50%

community: 80%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

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Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-31

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

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