Question

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

109 comments109

Total Forecasters513

Community Prediction80% (69% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

May 3, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Demonstrations

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI’s Sam Altman: ‘We Know How To Build AGI’, Will Hit Workforce In 2025

Daily Wire•Jan 26, 2025

AI Is Too Unpredictable to Behave According to Human Goals

Scientific American•Jan 27, 2025

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2029-02-07

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

16.3%

By what year will AI resolve binary questions on Metaculus?

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