Question

How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Resolved :1.02

2 comments2

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<-1

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2.5

...

0.1%

9.293e-1

1.002

1.069

0.1%

What was the final result?1.02

Community Baseline Score

89.2

Community Peer Score

10.3

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

FAO Headquarters

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-05-25

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

FAO Headquarters

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When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-05-25

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

20%