Question

How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Resolved :1.02

2 comments2

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<-1

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2.5

...

0.1%

0.9293

1.002

1.069

0.1%

What was the final result?1.02

Community Baseline Score

89.2

Community Peer Score

10.3

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

FAO Headquarters

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-12-17

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

FAO Headquarters

The world has ALREADY exceeded the critical 1.5°C warming threshold, study warns - and scientists say time is running out to curb climate change

Daily Mail•Nov 12, 2024

Humanity has warmed the planet by 1.5°C since 1700

New Scientist•Nov 12, 2024

Last month was the second hottest October on RECORD: Global average temperatures hit 15.32°C - and scientists say 2024 is 'virtually certain' to be the warmest ever

Daily Mail•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-12-17

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%