Question

Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?

Resolved :Ambiguous

137

370 comments370

Total Forecasters877

Community Prediction6%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 6%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 6.0%mean 12.4%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

1.9%

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

1.9%

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%