Question

Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters149

Community Prediction77%

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community: 77%

median 77.0%mean 70.1%

Authors:

Haifisch

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Ethics

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

AI control problem

Artificial general intelligence

AI box

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

18.9

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-09

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haifisch

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Ethics

Artificial intelligence

Computer science

Philosophy

AI control problem

Artificial general intelligence

AI box

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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

18.9

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-09

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Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

Make a Prediction

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

Comments

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?