Question

Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

24 comments24

Total Forecasters150

Community Prediction77%

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50%

community: 77%

median 77.0%mean 71.1%

Authors:

Haifisch

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

AI box

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-10-14

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

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? comments

Authors:

Haifisch

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

AI box

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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

19.7

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2027-10-14