Question

Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters149

Community Prediction77% (60% - 89%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 77%

Authors:

Haifisch

Opened:

Mar 5, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

AI box

Anthropic launches a new AI model that ‘thinks’ as long as you want

TechCrunch•Feb 25, 2025

Anthropic Launches the World’s First ‘Hybrid Reasoning’ AI Model

Wired•Feb 25, 2025

Seven Doorways to the Singularity

Psychology Today•Feb 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

18.9

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2026-10-19

Will the control problem be solved before the creation of "weak" Artificial General Intelligence?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Haifisch

Opened:

Mar 5, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

AGI Outcomes

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial general intelligence

AI box

Anthropic launches a new AI model that ‘thinks’ as long as you want

TechCrunch•Feb 25, 2025

Anthropic Launches the World’s First ‘Hybrid Reasoning’ AI Model

Wired•Feb 25, 2025

Seven Doorways to the Singularity

Psychology Today•Feb 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

18.9

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

2026-10-19