Question

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction2040-11

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2100-01

...

2033-12

2040-11

2058-03

9.3%

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Scheduled resolution:

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

2121-01

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

2033-06

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NoUsernameSelected

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

2045-08

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

2121-01

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

2033-06

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When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Make a Prediction

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

Comments

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

When will there be a (classical) polynomial time algorithm for factoring intergers?

When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?