Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?

Resolved :1.171.09
4
1
Total Forecasters36
Community Prediction1.09 (1 - 1.18)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<0.1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2.2
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
1.001
1.094
1.183
0.2%

What was the final result?1.17

Community Baseline Score
70.6
Community Peer Score
17.1
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Environment & Climate
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Meteorology
Earth science
Ed Hawkins (climatologist)
Phil Jones (climatologist)
Atmospheric science
Environmental science
Joseph Fourier
John Tyndall
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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