Question
What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?
Resolved :2.52.03Total Forecasters30
Community Prediction2.03 (1.82 - 2.43)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.5 | 0.5% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 1.816 | — |
| median | 2.027 | — |
| upper 75% | 2.428 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >3.5 | 0.7% | — |
What was the final result?2.5
Community Baseline Score
56.9
Community Peer Score
33.7
Authors:
Opened:Feb 24, 2020
Closes:Dec 1, 2021
Resolves:Dec 1, 2021
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 24, 2020
Closes:Dec 1, 2021
Resolves:Dec 1, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch