Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

Resolved :No1%
9
44
Total Forecasters164
Community Prediction1% (1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
66.7
Community Peer Score
10.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
AABoyles
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Health & Pandemics
2020 Leaderboard
Virology
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Centre for Health Protection
Public Health England
National Centre for Infectious Diseases
Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Public Health Agency of Canada
China
Hubei

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