Question

What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?

Resolved :0.0870.0692

9 comments9

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction0.0692 (0.0349 - 0.0993)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

0.03485

0.06922

0.09934

What was the final result?0.087

Community Baseline Score

96.0

Community Peer Score

14.8

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

ignorance.prior

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

COVID: Updated CDC Map Reveals Infection Rates Across US

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Analyst Predicts Slower-Than-Targeted Growth for China

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ignorance.prior

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

COVID: Updated CDC Map Reveals Infection Rates Across US

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

Analyst Predicts Slower-Than-Targeted Growth for China

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch