Question

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

16 comments16

Total Forecasters431

Community Prediction

1.5%

(1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.5%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Nov 6, 2016

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2060

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 8, 2016

Artificial Intelligence

In the Post-Cognitive World, What Comes After Thinking?

Psychology Today•Mar 23, 2025

Thinking About Thinking—How AI Reshapes Cognition

Psychology Today•Mar 22, 2025

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

2070

Will mind uploading happen before AGI?

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

177k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Nov 6, 2016

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2060

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 8, 2016

Artificial Intelligence

In the Post-Cognitive World, What Comes After Thinking?

Psychology Today•Mar 23, 2025

Thinking About Thinking—How AI Reshapes Cognition

Psychology Today•Mar 22, 2025

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

2070

Will mind uploading happen before AGI?

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

177k