Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?

Resolved :0.9230.913
6
21
Total Forecasters40
Community Prediction0.913 (0.895 - 0.923)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<0.7
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
...
0.5%
0.8954
0.9127
0.9234

What was the final result?0.923

Community Baseline Score
72.2
Community Peer Score
34.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
jabowery
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Algorithmic information theory
Hutter Prize
Wikipedia
Information theory

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